Patriots Showing Signs of Weakening

That’s right – the New England Patriots are showing signs of regression to the mean.

Before I present my analysis, let me be clear that I put about 15 minutes of research into this, and it’s really just a theory…but it makes sense to me especially in light of this past week’s narrow escape against the Eagles.

Check out the Patriots’ play calling balance since week one:

	Run	Pass	Balance	Margin
1	37	28	0.57	24
2	32	31	0.51	24
3	38	29	0.57	31
4	34	32	0.52	21
5	32	38	0.46	17
6	29	46	0.39	21
7	22	28	0.44	21
8	35	41	0.46	45
9	28	32	0.47	4
10	29	41	0.41	46
11	16	54	0.23	3
	30.18	36.36	0.45	23.36

So, for example, in their week one victory they ran the ball 37 times, passed the ball 28 times, and their play calling balance was .57. If they had run the ball and passed the ball the same number of times their balance value would be .50. Pretty easy stuff, nothing too complicated. In that game they won by 24 points.

Look at how their balance has been shifting over the course of the year. In their first four games of the season, all victories by more than 20 points, they ran the ball more than they passed it. That makes sense given the research done by our friends at Football Outsiders…teams run when they win, not win when they run. The Patriots certainly were winning, no doubt about that.

Then, in week five, the balance changed. They had to throw the ball a little bit more because Cleveland actually pushed them a little bit. They *only* won by 17 points.

In week six they played Dallas and the final margin was 21, but most of the game was pretty close. Brady & Co. had to throw the ball 46 times while only running it 29 times. That gave them a balance of .39, the most passing they had done all year.

To make a long story short, the Patriots are becoming more and more reliant upon the passing game to win games. In their 3 point victory over Philadelphia the Patriots ran the ball 16 times while passing it 54 times, a balance value of .23. They were pushed all night long, and if the trend continues and they have to keep throwing the pigskin we will surely see them lose during this regular season. I’m sticking to my guns and saying that their first loss will come at the hands of the Steelers, whose defense is rock solid and will keep Brady’s passes from reaching their intended targets.

As a bit of a side-note, we’ve also seen the Patriots go from sure and steady winners in their first seven games to gut-or-stomp winners in their past four games. In week 8 they won by 45, then beat the Colts in week 9 by 4. In week 10 they won by 46, then in week 11 they won by 3. That inconsistency is just another indicator of their coming demise.